Science Magazine - news-04-11-14

N E W S & A N A L Y S IS
EMBARGOED UNTIL 2:00 PM US ET THURSDAY, 10 APRIL 2014
S h o c k w a v e s . T h e 2 0 1 2 e a rth q u a k e s in E m ilia R o m a g n a k ille d 2 7 p e o p le a n d c a u s e d m a jo r d a m a g e .
S E I S M
O L O G Y
H u m a n A c tiv ity M a y H a v e T rig g e re d
F a ta l Ita lia n E a rth q u a k e s , P a n e l S a y s
R O M E — A p a ir o f d e a d ly e a r th q u a k e s th a t
th e c h a ir, P e te r S ty le s o f K e e le U n iv e r s ity
s tr u c k th e n o r th o f I ta ly in 2 0 1 2 c o u ld h a v e
in th e U n ite d K in g d o m — a s w e ll a s F ra n c o
b e e n trig g e re d b y th e e x tra c tio n o f p e tro le u m
T e r l i z z e s e , a n e n g i n e e r a t I t a l y ’s M i n i s t r y o f
a t a l o c a l o i l fi e l d , a c c o r d i n g t o a n i n t e r n a E c o n o m ic D e v e lo p m e n t.
tio n a l p a n e l o f g e o s c ie n tis ts .
In its re p o rt, d a te d F e b ru a ry 2 0 1 4 ,
T h e g r o u p ’s l o n g - a w a i t e d a n d a s - y e t IC H E S E re fu te s o n e a lle g e d fa c to r: th e
u n p u b lis h e d re p o rt, c o m m is s io n e d in th e
d e v e lo p m e n t o f a 3 .7 -b illio n -m 3 n a tu ra l
w a k e o f th e d is a s te r th a t k ille d 2 7 a n d in ju re d
g a s d e p o s it in a n a q u ife r a b o v e a n a c tiv e
h u n d re d s in th e E m ilia -R o m a g n a
re g io n , c o u ld h a v e im p o rta n t p o litic a l
C A V O N E
O IL F IE L D
a n d e c o n o m ic ra m if ic a tio n s , s o m e
E M IL IA s c ie n tis ts s a y . W h ile p re v io u s
R O M A G N A
F E R R A R A
R E G IO N
R IV A R A
s tu d ie s in o th e r c o u n trie s h a v e
M O D E N A
lin k e d e a rth q u a k e s to g a s a n d o il
e x p lo ra tio n , h u m a n c a s u a ltie s h a v e
b e e n v e ry ra re . F e a r o f h u m a n m a d e
2 9 M a y 2 0 1 2
s e i s m i c i t y h a s a l r e a d y t r i g g e r e d fi e r c e
2 0 M a y 2 0 1 2
o p p o s itio n a g a in s t n e w o il a n d g a s
d rillin g e ffo r ts in Ita ly , a n d V a s c o
E r ra n i, th e p re s id e n t o f th e E m ilia R o m a g n a re g io n , a n n o u n c e d in M a y
la s t y e a r th a t a ll n e w re q u e s ts fo r h y d ro c a rb o n
g e o lo g ic a l f a u lt n e a r th e v illa g e o f R iv a r a
e x p lo ra tio n in th e q u a k e a re a w o u ld b e p u t o n
in th e P o V a lle y , c lo s e to th e tw o e p ic e n te rs .
h o ld u n til th e c o m m is s io n d e liv e r e d its r e p o r t.
D rillin g fo r th e fa c ility h a d y e t to b e g in w h e n
S o u rc e s w ith c lo s e k n o w le d g e o f th e s tu d y
t h e q u a k e s s t r u c k . B u t t h e p a n e l d o e s fi n g e r
s a y it w a s p re s e n te d to th e E m ilia -R o m a g n a
a n o th e r s ite : th e C a v o n e o il f ie ld , o w n e d
re g io n a l g o v e rn m e n t a t le a s t a m o n th a g o ,
a n d o p e ra te d b y G a s P lu s . S c ie n c e h a s s e e n
b u t th a t p o litic ia n s a t b o th th e re g io n a l a n d
th e c o n c lu s io n s o f th e re p o rt, w h ic h s a y s
n a tio n a l le v e l a re n e rv o u s a b o u t its e ffe c ts
it “ c a n n o t b e e x c lu d e d ” th a t a c tiv itie s th e r e
a n d a re d e la y in g its re le a s e . A lth o u g h p h ra s e d
in itia te d th e 2 0 M a y q u a k e , w h o s e e p ic e n te r
c a u t i o u s l y , t h e p a n e l ’s c o n c l u s i o n s c o u l d l e a d
lie s a b o u t 2 0 k m a w a y .
t h e p r e s i d e n t s o f I t a l y ’s r e g i o n s t o t u r n d o w n
C h a n g e s in s tre s s a n d p re s s u re w ith in
n e w re q u e s ts fo r fo s s il-fu e l e x p lo ra tio n ;
E a r t h ’s c r u s t r e s u l t i n g f r o m b o t h t h e r e m o v a l
e x is tin g p ro d u c tio n c o u ld a ls o b e h it.
o f o i l a n d t h e i n j e c t i o n o f fl u i d s t o e n h a n c e
T h e p a n e l, k n o w n a s IC H E S E , w a s
o il flo w w o u ld a lm o s t c e r ta in ly n o t h a v e
a s k e d in la te 2 0 1 2 to re v ie w p o s s ib le lin k s
b e e n s u f fi c i e n t o n t h e i r o w n t o h a v e i n d u c e d
b e tw e e n h y d ro c a rb o n p ro d u c tio n a n d th e
a m a jo r e a rth q u a k e , th e e x p e rts e x p la in . B u t
e a r th q u a k e s , a m a g n itu d e - 5 .9 e v e n t o n 2 0
it is p o s s ib le th a t th e fa u lt in v o lv e d in th e
M a y 2 0 1 2 , a n d a m a g n itu d e - 5 .8 e v e n t 9
2 0 M a y tre m o r w a s c lo s e to th e b re a k in g
d a y s la te r. IC H E S E c o n s is ts o f tw o Ita lia n
p o in t, a n d th a t th e h u m a n -in d u c e d c h a n g e s
a n d th re e fo re ig n g e o s c ie n tis ts — in c lu d in g
in th e c r u s t, a lth o u g h e x tr e m e ly s m a ll, w e r e
R IV A R A G A S
S T O R A G E
(P R O P O S E D )
C R E D IT : (T O P ) A S S O C IA T E D P R E S S
E A R T H Q U A K E
E P IC E N T E R
w w w .s c ie n c e m a g .o r g
S C IE N C E
V O L 3 4 4
P u b lis h e d b y A A A S
e n o u g h to “ trig g e r” th e e a rth q u a k e . T h a t
q u a k e c o u ld in tu rn h a v e trig g e re d th e 2 9 M a y
e v e n t b y fu rth e r a lte rin g c ru s ta l s tre s s .
T h e g ro u p re a c h e d th is c o n c lu s io n o n
th e b a s is o f a c o r re la tio n b e tw e e n in c re a s e d
o u t p u t f r o m t h e C a v o n e fi e l d b e g i n n i n g i n
A p ril 2 0 1 1 a n d ris in g s e is m ic ity in th e a re a
b e fo re 2 0 M a y 2 0 1 2 . T h e y s a y th is lin k
s h o u ld n o w b e b a c k e d u p b y a p h y s ic a l m o d e l
in c o rp o ra tin g “ th e flu id d y n a m ic s in th e
r e s e r v o i r a n d i n t h e s u r r o u n d i n g r o c k s .”
S ty le s d id n o t re s p o n d to q u e s tio n s a b o u t
th e re p o rt, a n d a s p o k e s p e rs o n fo r G a s P lu s
s a y s th e c o m p a n y c a n n o t c o m m e n t o n th e
fi n d i n g s . B u t a n e a r t h s c i e n t i s t w h o a s k e d n o t
to b e n a m e d a rg u e s th a t s e v e ra l fa c to rs ru le
o u t a c o n n e c tio n b e tw e e n c ru d e o il p ro d u c tio n
a t C a v o n e a n d th e 2 0 M a y e a rth q u a k e : a n
a b s e n c e o f s m a ll q u a k e s in d u c e d d ir e c tly b y
t h e o i l p r o d u c t i o n , t h e s i g n i fi c a n t d i s t a n c e
b e t w e e n o i l fi e l d a n d e p i c e n t e r , a n d t h e p l a n t ’ s
m o d e s t o u tp u t o f a b o u t 5 0 0 b a r re ls a d a y .
G e o ff r e y A b e r s o f C o lu m b ia U n iv e r s ity
c a u tio n s th a t th e s e f a c to rs w o u ld n ’t
n e c e s s a r ily r u le o u t a lin k . T h r e e tr e m o r s w ith
m a g n itu d e s b e tw e e n 4 .5 a n d 5 in D e n v e r
in 1 9 6 7 h a v e b e e n a ttrib u te d to c h e m ic a ls
b e in g p u m p e d d o w n a d e e p w e ll, h e
n o te s , e v e n th o u g h in je c tio n h a d s to p p e d
m o re th a n a y e a r e a rlie r a n d ta k e n p la c e
u p to 1 0 k ilo m e te rs fro m th e q u a k e s ’
e p ic e n te rs . A n d th re e q u a k e s w ith
m a g n itu d e s 5 a n d a b o v e th a t o c c u rre d
in O k la h o m a in N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 1 w e re
p r o b a b ly a r e s u lt o f w a s te w a te r b e in g
p u m p e d in to a d e p le te d o il w e ll, e v e n
th o u g h th e v o lu m e s in v o lv e d w e re q u ite
s m a ll. “ W e th in k th a t in O k la h o m a th e
in je c te d w a te r w a s ja c k in g u p th e p re s s u re
i n j u s t t h e r i g h t p l a c e ,” A b e r s s a y s , “ a n d t h a t
c a u s e d a c a s c a d i n g s e q u e n c e o f e a r t h q u a k e s .”
S o m e Ita lia n g e o lo g is ts w o r r y th e
p o litic a l n o is e th a t th e re p o r t c o u ld
g e n e ra te w ill d is c o u ra g e ra tio n a l a n d o p e n
d is c u s s io n a b o u t th e s e is m ic ris k s o f o il
a n d g a s d e v e lo p m e n t. S im ila r fe a rs w e re
a ire d a fte r th e L ’A q u ila e a rth q u a k e , w h ic h
k ille d m o re th a n 3 0 0 p e o p le 5 y e a rs a g o
th is w e e k . In its a fte rm a th , s e v e n e x p e rts
w e re e a c h s e n te n c e d to 6 y e a rs in p ris o n
fo r d o w n p la y in g s e is m ic ris k a h e a d o f th e
d e a d ly e v e n t, a s e n te n c e th a t s o m e , th o u g h
b y n o m e a n s a ll, s c ie n tis ts b e lie v e d b e tra y e d
ig n o ra n c e b y th e p u b lic a n d th e ju d ic ia ry
a b o u t th e u n c e rta in tie s in h e re n t in s c ie n c e .
A n a p p e a l in th e L ’A q u ila c a s e is p e n d in g .
– E D W IN C A R T L ID G E
E d w in C a r tlid g e is a s c ie n c e w r ite r in R o m e .
1 1 A P R IL 2 0 1 4
1 4 1